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Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime showdown, and the model has highlighted a few plays that really stand out.
We crunched the numbers, matched our projections against the market, and zeroed in on the spots with real value.
For these Lakers vs. Suns predictions, it’s not guesswork — it’s data-driven.
If you’re putting together your card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for Thursday, February 26.
Lakers vs Suns computer picks for February 26
| Lakers |  Suns |
|---|---|
| Reaves o19.5 points -120 | Green u20.5 points +102 |
| Ayton o7.5 rebounds +100 | Gillespie o3.5 3-pointers +110 |
| Doncic u7.5 assists +100 | O'Neale o4.5 rebounds +102 |
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Lakers computer picks
Austin Reaves Over 19.5 points (-120)
Projection: 20.4 points
Even though Austin Reaves has gone Over 19.5 points in just two of his last 10 games, the offensive environment still helps his outlook. The Los Angeles Lakers have averaged a strong 119.0 points per game on the road over their last five, the ninth-highest mark in the league.
Meanwhile, opposing starting shooting guards have been getting to the line consistently against the Phoenix Suns, averaging 3.4 free-throw attempts per game over the last 10 — a trend that opens the door for extra scoring opportunities.
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Deandre Ayton Over 7.5 rebounds (+100)
Projection: 8.6 rebounds
Deandre Ayton has cleared the 7.5 rebounds line in four of his last 10, and this matchup gives him a real chance to build on that.
Facing the Suns sets up well for volume on the glass. Phoenix’s offensive style leans on perimeter shooting and mid-range looks, which naturally creates more rebound chances for opposing bigs when shots don’t fall.
That means Ayton should have consistent opportunities to clean up misses on the defensive end.
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Luka Doncic Under 7.5 assists (+100)
Projection: 7.5 assists
Although Luka Dončić has gone Over this 7.5 assists line in six of his last 10 games, the pace setup isn’t doing him many favors tonight.
The Lakers have been the eighth-slowest visiting team in the NBA this season, and the Suns have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over their last five games — a combination that should lead to fewer possessions and fewer playmaking opportunities overall.
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Suns computer picks
Jalen Green Under 20.5 points (+102)
Projection: 20.1 points
From a scoring standpoint, the Suns have struggled at home, averaging just 108.5 points per game over their last 20 — the lowest mark in the league in that span.
On the other side, opposing starting shooting guards have averaged only 11.7 field-goal attempts per game against the Lakers this season, the sixth-fewest in the NBA.
That makes this a tough spot for Jalen Green, who has gone Under 20.5 points in nine of his last 10 games.
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Collin Gillespie Over 3.5 3-pointers (+110)
Projection: 4.0 3-pointers
With the Suns leading the league in offensive rebounding over the last five games, those extra possessions can create more scoring chances and provide a boost for Collin Gillespie, who has gone Over this three-point line in three of his last 10.
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Royce O'Neale Over 4.5 rebounds (+102)
Projection: 5.1 rebounds
As mentioned, the Suns have seen a surge in offensive rebounding over the past few games, and Royce O'Neale has been a big part of that push.
After clearing the 4.5 rebounds line in five of his last 10, he’s in a good spot to keep contributing on the glass.
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How to watch Lakers vs Suns tonight
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, February 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Spectrum SportsNet, AZFS |
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