Rob Refsnyder was one of the worst players in MLB from 2015-2021. He’s now a crucial member of the Mariners’ title run.
Refsnyder posted -1.0 fWAR in the seven years that followed his MLB debut in 2015. It wasn’t just one bad season but the slow accumulation of negative value across several years and teams. He was 31 years old with a career 71 wRC+ and no discernible skills when he signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox in 2022, his ninth organization in 10 years.
Then he got good:
From 2022 to 2025, Refsynder posted a 124 wRC+ in 936 plate appearances. Sure, he wasn’t a full-time player, averaging fewer than 250 plate appearances a season. But he found his niche as a short-side platoon option, with a 155 wRC+ against lefties, sixth best in MLB.
Refsnyder’s slow ascent is a nice story. He spoke in multiple interviews about changes he made to his stance, swing and approach to hitting. He accumulated bits of wisdom from dozens of coaches and analysts, slowly piecing piece together an MLB-worthy skillset. His interview with David Laurila at FanGraphs is worth reading in full, but I think this quote sums him up best:
“I really don’t know why [it’s taken so long]. I mean, I’ve never stopped working along the way. I’ve always understood that I had to be objective and recognize when my swing wasn’t good, or that my results weren’t good. I’ve always known that I had to improve as a hitter.”
Just before Christmas, the Mariners gave Refsnyder his first real payday, a bit more than $6 million for one year; modest by the standards of free agency, but still a near doubling of his career earnings at the age of 35, now with his 11th organization.
He’s become crucial, too. One of the biggest concerns for the Mariners’ roster right now is the handedness of their lineup. They have six everyday players:
- Three lefties: Josh Naylor, Brendan Donovan, J.P. Crawford
- Two righties: Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena
- One switch hitter: Cal Raleigh
Then they have three spots up for grabs. The top options are all lefties: Dom Canzone, Luke Raley, Cole Young and Colt Emerson each provide big upside with a variety of skillsets. The righty options are likely lesser: Victor Robles, Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas and Andrew Knizner have more tenuous futures in MLB. Refsnyder provides necessary length against lefties while offering positional versatility, having played six positions throughout his career.
To be clear, the Mariners aren’t projected to be bad against lefties. Rodríguez, Raleigh, Arozarena and now Refsnyder are a competitive group on their own. Even with the handedness concerns, the Mariners are still projected 10th in MLB with a 106 wRC+ against lefties. That’s a bit worse than their projected 114 wRC+ against righties (second only to the Dodgers’ extraordinary mark of 121), but it’s still enough to make them one of the top lineups in MLB. That’s to say, Mariners’ weaknesses at this point are relatively minor; “handedness” is the type of thing only great teams get to worry about.
While Refsnyder doesn’t quite move the needle, he’s not really meant to. His inclusion on this roster is a sign the Mariners are serious about contending in 2026. He’s spent a decade desperate to get better anyway he can. It seems the Mariners are finally on board.