At All-Star Weekend, LeBron James refused to answer questions about his basketball future. That hasn’t stopped the rest of the NBA from speculating about what’s next for King James, though.
Will he retire after this season? Will he re-sign with the Lakers? Or will he head back home to Cleveland and spent one last year with the Cavaliers?
On Friday, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said there’s “rampant speculation” around the league about the last option.
The narratives will basically write themselves if LeBron decides to return to Cleveland, but the NBA salary cap won’t make that easy for the Cavs to pull off.
Can the Cavs duck the second apron?
Although the Cavs shed some long-term salary at this year’s trade deadline, they still have the league’s highest payroll this year and are the only team above the $207.8 million second apron. They’re already projected to be right in that neighborhood next year, too.
If the Cavs are above the second apron in 2026-27, they couldn’t offer LeBron more than a veteran-minimum contract in free agency. He’d take home $3.9 million since he has 10-plus years of NBA experience, although he’d count for less than $2.5 million on the Cavs’ books.
That’s the dream scenario from the Cavs’ perspective. If LeBron is willing to take a minimum contract, he can go wherever he wants this summer, including a team that’s over the second apron. But if he wants more than that, the Cavs will need to make other moves first.
To gain access to the $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception, the Cavs would have to get far enough below the second apron that they could stay below it through June 30, 2027. Dumping Max Strus ($16.7 million) or Dennis Schröder ($14.8 million) this offseason would go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.
After the trade deadline, Cavs general manager Koby Altman told reporters that the front office knew they would be in the second apron this season but had “different strategies” for getting out of it if needed.
“Coming into the deadline, we were in the wilderness in terms of how do you see getting out of that second apron?” Altman said. “We got closer after the De’Andre Hunter trade, and then obviously moving Lonzo into [cap] space gets you even closer. So you can see it now. It’s in clear sight. And I think in the summer, if we want to pull that lever, we can.”
The first apron is a different story, though.
How much will LeBron want?
If LeBron wanted more than the $6.1 million taxpayer MLE, the Cavs would have even more work to do.
Using the $15.1 million non-taxpayer MLE—or even a portion of it—on James would hard-cap them at the first apron. They’re currently projected to be nearly $15 million above that line in 2026-27, and that’s not counting however much they’d be paying James.
Getting under the second apron should be manageable for the Cavs, but the first apron would be a stretch unless they shake up their new core again. Would they be willing to send Jarrett Allen back as part of a sign-and-trade for James? If so, that would hard-cap them at the first apron as well.
The threat level of the Cavs as a LeBron landing spot this offseason can’t be overstated given his history with the team. The realistic chances of him landing there depend on what he’s willing to settle on financially.
The Cavs have already sent signals to LeBron that they’d be open to a reunion, though. ESPN’s Dave McMenamin recently reported that they “would gladly welcome James back this summer if he wanted to return to Cleveland.”
At All-Star Weekend, Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell also made it clear that he’d be down to join forces with LeBron.
Even at the age of 41, James is still averaging 22 points, 7.1 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. He’s no longer at the peak of his powers, but he’s still a legitimate difference-maker. He’s the type of player that teams move mountains for whenever he wants to sign with them.
If the Cavaliers could assemble a Big Four of LeBron, Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley next year, that’s the type of all-in shot worth taking, especially if they’re worried about their chances of re-signing Mitchell. The appeal of one final return to Cleveland to join a ready-made title contender could be hard for LeBron to turn down, especially as he questions the Lakers’ own title candidacy.
It’s just a question of how much he’s willing to sacrifice financially. Is the $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception enough? If not, the Cavs legitimately will have to move mountains to figure out a way to fit him in financially.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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